Texas Housing Market Update – January 2026: Insights for Spring, Klein & Tomball

The Texas housing market is entering 2026 with more balance and predictability after years of volatility. Statewide, price cutting has tempered inventory growth, and falling interest rates are expected to lift sales modestly. According to the Texas Real Estate Research Center’s 2026 forecast, home sales are projected to rise by 2.5%, or about 349,000 new and existing homes, while easier financing should nudge the median price up by 1.3% to roughly $334,000. Single-family rents are forecast to hover near $2,200, indicating a relatively stable rental market.

A healthier market is emerging across Texas. Analysts note that increased inventory is giving buyers options they haven’t had in years, leading to fewer bidding wars and more negotiation room. Mortgage rates are expected to remain relatively stable, and moderating home prices are helping first-time and move-up buyers re-enter the market. For sellers, success depends on realistic pricing and thoughtful preparation, as today’s buyers expect homes to be well-maintained and accurately priced. These conditions signal a return to a more traditional market where strategy matters.

Houston’s real estate market closed 2025 on a high note. The Houston Association of Realtors reported that total property sales finished 2.3% higher than in 2024, with single-family home sales up 3.8% year over year. December 2025 sales grew 1.2% compared with December 2024 and jumped 16.48% month over month; single-family sales rose 2.8% annually, although days on market increased to 64 days. This suggests a slightly slower yet still active pace heading into 2026.

Other factors will influence how Spring, Klein and Tomball fare this year. Texas continues to experience strong in-migration, ranking No. 1 on the U-Haul Growth Index for 2025. Many Texas metros remain relatively affordable: median home prices hover around $290,000 in San Antonio, $230,000 in El Paso and $210,000 in McAllen. In Houston, condo inventory rose 28% while median prices dropped 7.5%, signalling opportunities for buyers seeking upscale urban living. These trends suggest that more inventory and cooling prices may spill over into Spring, Klein and Tomball, offering buyers more choices and sellers a chance to showcase well-maintained homes.

Overall, the January 2026 market points to moderate growth and improved affordability for families across Harris County. Whether you’re looking to buy, sell or invest in Spring, Klein or Tomball, partnering with a real estate professional who understands these dynamics can help you make informed decisions. The Harbert Real Estate Group keeps you updated on local trends and can guide you through the nuances of the market.

Sources: Texas Real Estate Research Center – 2026 Texas Real Estate Forecast: https://trerc.tamu.edu/article/2026-texas-real-estate-forecast/; Cross Timbers Gazette – The 2026 housing market brings opportunity for buyers and sellers across North Texas: https://www.crosstimbersgazette.com/2026/01/17/the-2026-housing-market-brings-opportunity-for-buyers-and-sellers-across-north-texas/; Leslie Lerner Properties – Real Estate Market News for January 2026: https://leslielernerproperties.com/real-estate-market-news-for-january-2026/; Churchill Mortgage – January 2026 Real Estate Market Update & Forecast: https://www.churchillmortgage.com/articles/january-2026-monthly-housing-market-update.